Pre-draft I noticed that we'd been lucky and some guys had gone on to have career years in the NBA like Demar Derozan, Isaiah Thomas, Jonas Valancuinus and Jimmy Butler and suddenly I had a potential playoff team again - if only a little guard heavy!
Draft
Then we got a little bit of luck in the draft to pop up a couple of spots higher in the lottery at three, then traded for the number one spot to land superstar forward Elgin Baylor. Elgin is an amazing talent, a high rebounding SF/PF with good passing skills, great defense and a real team glue guy. We followed that up with a risky high-reward potential with our second round pick in one of the most talented big men ever to not play as many games as he should have; Bill Walton. His son may have just netted a primo job as Lakers coach, but Walton is probably one of the biggest 'what ifs' of all time - a sure fire double-double with great defense and passing ability but sooooo many games missed. Even so for a second round pick we really didn't see anyone who met our needs as well. When Walton is playing the Stars will be very dangerous. Our final pick on the draft we traded up and let go of young star Demar Derozan to enable us to snag Dan Roundfield. Dan's a real blue-collar worker, big rebounds, solid defense and another great team-mate for the roster. Overall that's an A grade draft to me; the best player in the draft (certainly for my team), a game-changing centre and a solid power forward banger to compliment the others and not a guard in sight!
Trade and Free-Agency
So trade brought about a higher pick but also a couple of other acquisitions along the way. How about the once cornerstone centre of the Oaks in Dwight
A touch of analysis..
So yeah, you may have seen this picture on the draft board - I have to admit I do use some different schemes to evaluate players to others and there's a bit of formula work going on in the background too (like Stan, Jose and Adam there's a bit of geek in me too) but I also very strongly look at the mix. My take is that we as a team have a strong starting five but there are definitely better out there. Our strength is that we go at least 4 deep at every position without a large dip off in production. Our highest per min difference between a starter and key backup is the 0.09 between Bill Walton and Dwight Howard and in most positions it's a lot less than that. Our game plan will be to beat teams with depth and defense first and foremost. What we don't have is elite scorers on this team. My take is that with the passing and high shooting percentage we'll overcome our lack of scoring talent, but I'm guessing the season will show that. This is also not a PER team (although a 19 PER average for the team probably isn't that shabby either), I'm a fan of per min ratings and Int and Off more than PER but each to their own. Our best PER man is Jonas at 22.4 who is likely third in line at C.
Utah Stars
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G MIN FG% FT% 3P% REB A PF BLK TO STL PTS
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Isaiah Thomas 82 32 44.1 86.7 35.9 3.0 6.8 2.3 0.1 3.1 1.2 23.5
Elgin Baylor 79 40 47.3 75.8 31.0 10.4 3.8 3.4 1.9 2.8 1.7 22.4
Jimmy Butler 65 38 47.9 83.7 38.3 5.9 3.6 1.9 0.6 1.6 2.0 22.0
Warren Jabali 39 38 43.9 72.5 36.7 7.5 5.3 3.1 1.3 4.3 1.8 19.9
Walt Frazier 80 37 53.3 78.5 32.6 4.8 8.4 2.8 0.3 2.5 2.6 16.8
Dwight Howard 71 32 63.7 48.7 0.0 11.7 1.5 3.5 1.7 2.7 1.1 14.9
Louis Williams 75 23 41.4 81.0 34.2 2.1 3.8 1.9 0.2 1.6 0.7 14.8
Dan Roundfield 80 32 48.4 71.6 29.5 10.4 1.6 4.1 2.2 2.2 1.0 14.7
Jonas Valanciunas 60 26 58.2 75.9 0.0 9.1 0.8 3.0 1.4 1.6 0.5 13.8
Shawn Marion 67 30 53.0 78.0 31.7 8.1 2.7 1.9 0.7 1.7 1.2 13.3
Bill Walton 35 33 52.3 67.5 0.0 11.7 4.9 3.1 3.3 3.1 0.8 12.7
Jordan Hill 72 21 56.4 68.1 0.0 7.6 0.8 2.7 1.0 1.2 0.5 10.5
Chuck Gilmur 77 15 56.0 58.0 25.0 4.6 2.6 3.1 0.8 1.0 0.5 6.0
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Trade Bait
Okay, I'm not shy when it comes to offering up players and expect that to continue. Because of the depth it means that no single player is completely indispensable - although Frazier, Butler and Baylor are my cornerstones. I've also been lucky with youth and experience; current guys like Thomas, Jonas, Williams, Howard and Hill combining with the known futures (but regens all) of Bill, Elgin, Dan and Frazier means we're trying to compete this year and the next, gulp, say 5 conservatively. I'd be amazed if we don't shift someone before or early season. We've got depth at the hardest positions to fill and particular with high-quality expiring guys like Marion (0.55), Gilmur (0.52) and short future guys Hill (0.55 21PER) and Knight (0.51). But hey, standing pat is okay.
Season prediction
It's already rumbled out there that we're a likely decent squad this year. That by no means automatically places us anywhere but I think the playoffs is more than realistic. I think record wise we're like to garner wins in the 50s and maybe higher. If I had to put a figure on it I'd go with 57 which I think is good enough for top 4 in the ABA and a favourable first round match-up. Good news is the following season I see us climbing a little higher still and then we're in the lap of the gods for our young guys and trades of course.
Who's going to win it all season 14? I actually think there isn't as clear a favourite as previous years, but the Spurs will be tough and I feel that the winner may be coming from the ABA. Could it be the Stars? Yes, but it's a bit of a long-shot still, but we'll give it our best.
