UBAL Season 14 Utah Stars Preview

Last season passed with a painful 26-56 record that was a huge drop off from the 60 games we won the year before.  Unfortunately it was a bit of a necessary evil as we were left with everybody looking so old that a 40-45 win season was the best prognosis.  Instead we sold off all the old guys and went full in on the draft.  Duncan, Magic, Dr J - man I hated letting those guys go, but a rebuild isn't a half-way thing and we did end up picking up Jimmy Butler and Walt Frazier as the cornerstone guards moving forwards.

Pre-draft I noticed that we'd been lucky and some guys had gone on to have career years in the NBA like Demar Derozan, Isaiah Thomas, Jonas Valancuinus and Jimmy Butler and suddenly I had a potential playoff team again - if only a little guard heavy!

Draft

Then we got a little bit of luck in the draft to pop up a couple of spots higher in the lottery at three, then traded for the number one spot to land superstar forward Elgin Baylor.  Elgin is an amazing talent, a high rebounding SF/PF with good passing skills, great defense and a real team glue guy.  We followed that up with a risky high-reward potential with our second round pick in one of the most talented big men ever to not play as many games as he should have; Bill Walton.  His son may have just netted a primo job as Lakers coach, but Walton is probably one of the biggest 'what ifs' of all time - a sure fire double-double with great defense and passing ability but sooooo many games missed.  Even so for a second round pick we really didn't see anyone who met our needs as well. When Walton is playing the Stars will be very dangerous.  Our final pick on the draft we traded up and let go of young star Demar Derozan to enable us to snag Dan Roundfield.  Dan's a real blue-collar worker, big rebounds, solid defense and another great team-mate for the roster.  Overall that's an A grade draft to me; the best player in the draft (certainly for my team), a game-changing centre and a solid power forward banger to compliment the others and not a guard in sight!

Trade and Free-Agency
So trade brought about a higher pick but also a couple of other acquisitions along the way.  How about the once cornerstone centre of the Oaks in Dwight

Howard? Maybe not the Dwight of a few years ago but 2016 Dwight is still pulling down rebounds, blocking shots and grinning his way to a 0.59 per minute rating - that's a lot better than many starting Cs in the UBAL and handy as a backup to big Bill. We let go of Darrell Armstrong who's a few years away from being a great contributor at the point, but also picked up Warren Jabali - another guy who plays great D (when not injured) and a versatile little addition that may pay rewards down the line.  Shawn Marion (a well known UBA stud) was also brought in for his final year, he was a throw in on the trade to get the number one seed, but Marion is no slouch and could get minutes at 3/4 with his very respectable 0.55 per minute rating and 10 boards per 36.  Another trade that was for a draft pick saw the Stars get the slightly unusual Chuck Gilmur. Not a guy that would get picked up on many's radar but Gilmur is an intriguing prospect. 11 rebounds per 36, 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks and a negative harassment? I don't know how he fits, but I think he's an asset albeit like Marion a one year one.  

Last pickup was a regen point guard Brevin Knight when Tobias Harris was dropped in free agency.  How did Brevin and his first three years of .52 per min play and strong assists and defense get skipped in the draft?  I don't know but I'm very happy to snag him in free agency and Tobias just wasn't making the progress we hoped.




A touch of analysis..

So yeah, you may have seen this picture on the draft board - I have to admit I do use some different schemes to evaluate players to others and there's a bit of formula work going on in the background too (like Stan, Jose and Adam there's a bit of geek in me too) but I also very strongly look at the mix.  My take is that we as a team have a strong starting five but there are definitely better out there.  Our strength is that we go at least 4 deep at every position without a large dip off in production.  Our highest per min difference between a starter and key backup is the 0.09 between Bill Walton and Dwight Howard and in most positions it's a lot less than that.  Our game plan will be to beat teams with depth and defense first and foremost.  What we don't have is elite scorers on this team.  My take is that with the passing and high shooting percentage we'll overcome our lack of scoring talent, but I'm guessing the season will show that.  This is also not a PER team (although a 19 PER average for the team probably isn't that shabby either), I'm a fan of per min ratings and Int and Off more than PER but each to their own. Our best PER man is Jonas at 22.4 who is likely third in line at C.

                                        Utah Stars

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                       G  MIN  FG%   FT%   3P%   REB   A    PF  BLK   TO  STL   PTS

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Isaiah Thomas         82  32  44.1  86.7  35.9   3.0  6.8  2.3  0.1  3.1  1.2  23.5

Elgin Baylor          79  40  47.3  75.8  31.0  10.4  3.8  3.4  1.9  2.8  1.7  22.4

Jimmy Butler          65  38  47.9  83.7  38.3   5.9  3.6  1.9  0.6  1.6  2.0  22.0

Warren Jabali         39  38  43.9  72.5  36.7   7.5  5.3  3.1  1.3  4.3  1.8  19.9

Tobias Harris         68  35  48.4  79.2  37.0   6.4  2.0  2.3  0.6  1.9  1.1  18.4

Walt Frazier          80  37  53.3  78.5  32.6   4.8  8.4  2.8  0.3  2.5  2.6  16.8

Dwight Howard         71  32  63.7  48.7   0.0  11.7  1.5  3.5  1.7  2.7  1.1  14.9

Louis Williams        75  23  41.4  81.0  34.2   2.1  3.8  1.9  0.2  1.6  0.7  14.8

Dan Roundfield        80  32  48.4  71.6  29.5  10.4  1.6  4.1  2.2  2.2  1.0  14.7

Jonas Valanciunas     60  26  58.2  75.9   0.0   9.1  0.8  3.0  1.4  1.6  0.5  13.8

Shawn Marion          67  30  53.0  78.0  31.7   8.1  2.7  1.9  0.7  1.7  1.2  13.3

Bill Walton           35  33  52.3  67.5   0.0  11.7  4.9  3.1  3.3  3.1  0.8  12.7

Jordan Hill           72  21  56.4  68.1   0.0   7.6  0.8  2.7  1.0  1.2  0.5  10.5

Chuck Gilmur          77  15  56.0  58.0  25.0   4.6  2.6  3.1  0.8  1.0  0.5   6.0

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Trade Bait

Okay, I'm not shy when it comes to offering up players and expect that to continue.  Because of the depth it means that no single player is completely indispensable - although Frazier, Butler and Baylor are my cornerstones.  I've also been lucky with youth and experience; current guys like Thomas, Jonas, Williams, Howard and Hill combining with the known futures (but regens all) of Bill, Elgin, Dan and Frazier means we're trying to compete this year and the next, gulp, say 5 conservatively.  I'd be amazed if we don't shift someone before or early season.  We've got depth at the hardest positions to fill and particular with high-quality expiring guys like Marion (0.55), Gilmur (0.52) and short future guys Hill (0.55 21PER) and Knight (0.51). But hey, standing pat is okay.

Season prediction

It's already rumbled out there that we're a likely decent squad this year.  That by no means automatically places us anywhere but I think the playoffs is more than realistic.  I think record wise we're like to garner wins in the 50s and maybe higher.  If I had to put a figure on it I'd go with 57 which I think is good enough for top 4 in the ABA and a favourable first round match-up.  Good news is the following season I see us climbing a little higher still and then we're in the lap of the gods for our young guys and trades of course.

Who's going to win it all season 14? I actually think there isn't as clear a favourite as previous years, but the Spurs will be tough and I feel that the winner may be coming from the ABA.  Could it be the Stars? Yes, but it's a bit of a long-shot still, but we'll give it our best.